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Melbourne Cup and VRC carnival tips

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tza_SAm0xHQ"]Hardwicke Stakes 2012_Sea Moon_R L Moore - YouTube[/ame]

This a key form race for me.

I am liking both of them, even with weight rise for Dunaden.
 
neddy, do you like anyhting derby day? not bad fields in terms of smaller fields which can make it a bit easier.
 
wow, just heard they are expecting 120,000 to derby day - man that place will be jam packed. I hate going to the races when it's that full.
 
spartacus said:
neddy, do you like anyhting derby day? not bad fields in terms of smaller fields which can make it a bit easier.
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Just having a quick look at the form while at work, i will list what i like in each race, although this may change when i get more time to study the form

Race 1 -Al Aneed - Has G.Boss on board and came from a long way back last start over 1400 and hit the line hard so the 1600m should suit as well as the larger galloping track of Flemington

Race 2 - Gatewood with G.Boss on board as well could very well backup after winning the Geelong Cup last Weds, but also in the mix would be Excluded who was scratched from the Bendigo Cup yesterday to run in this and ran a good second to Shahwardi in the Herbert Power the other week, and Rueben Percival ran a good second to Vatuvai in the MV Cup which could be good form running into this race.

Race 3 - Dear Demi - Clearly the class runner in this field and stepping up from the 1600m last start when flew home from almost last to finish secodn to Commanding Jewel should suit.

Race 4 - I think Fire Thunderbolt meets Schnitzerland better at the weights and should be right in it as well as Schnitzerland but is 6 runs into a prep so will be interesting to see if it can hold form, other one i really like is Nechita

Race 5 - Ocean Park to continue on its winning way followed closely behind by Alchopop

Race 6 - Hard to go Past the form of It's a dundeel, only just beaten by Super Cool last start, should be a great battle between them again this race, but i think i will be having some money on Hvasstan who hit the line well winning the Norman Robinson over 2000m and should be at better odds

Race 7 - Not sure need to study form a little closer

Race 8 - tough tought race with maybe 6 chances i would think, I do like howmuchdoyouloveme after its first up win, but as i said many chances and would have to have a closer look

Race 9 - Dont really like anything in this race and will see if i have anything in the bank roll by this stage....
 
Yes, agree with a lot of that.

I will probably only bet on 4-5 races though. Probbaly start of with Gatewood and Excluded, and hope biggest price wins.
 
Dont back odds on, so wont tip obvious favorite in McKinnon stakes.

Going for Gatewood and Excluded in race 2, Sizzling race 4 each way, and Pampelonne each way race 8.

Will have a few smallbets on longshots in three other races.

Good luck fellow punters.
 
What about Al Aneed in race 1. I'm putting a few bucks for the win (thanks Neddy)

For the Derby I'm going for Subiaso as a roughie at $17.00 and will also have a good look at Super Cool @ $6.00.

For Race 3 I like Zydeco at $2.70, which is a bit skinny but carry a few kilos less than Pumpa Cassidy's ride.

Race 5 I like Ocean Park but waay to skinny at $1.55, might have a crack at Oliver's ride Glass Harmonium at $13.00.
 
wouldn't you think Dunaden should be favourite for The Cup. Winner of the Caulfield Cup - a good indicator.
 
L.P.S. said:
wouldn't you think Dunaden should be favourite for The Cup. Winner of the Caulfield Cup - a good indicator.
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Your would think Dunaden would start close to favourite, however, there have been very few horses which have won the Caulfield/Melbourne Cup double, think you would have to go back to Ethereal in 2001 and before that was Might and Power in 1997, so based on that it is not the best form line.

BUT, i think Dunaden is a class horse and is more then capable of adding his name to that list, if the rain comes early enough i would think Americain would have the edge.
 
they are carrying some heavy weights, and generally I've found favourites don't go so well on Derby Day. But then again I am a mug punter.
 
Also remember Mt Athos, big wraps on it and also down in the weights, will have to check out the form a bit closer as Tues track looks to be be hard and fast with the weather as much as they try and water it should still be a good 3 come cup time. I am interested in checking the form of Red cadeaux a little closer considering it meets Dunaden 3.5kg better in the weights from last years, but has Dunaden also improved 3.5kg better????
 
Neddysmith said:
but has Dunaden also improved 3.5kg better????
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Dunaden's owners were on the News confident that its a better horse than last year.
This morning channel 9 sports show said Americian has been having shoe problems due to minor injuries or something and it might struggle on a good track, take from that what you will. If it pisses down though, doesn't that put Americain into prime position.
 
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