yeah, i know, it's retarded and on the surface it does not respect the laws of thermodynamics (which we respect in this house).
but yes, i'm quite sure it's a combination of my weight prior to the re-feed being artificially low due to a combination of dehydration, low muscle glycogen, low fibre intake, etc and then after the re-feed my weight being artificially high due to higher glycogen, fibre, hydration, etc. then over the next 2 weeks i'll slowly bleed that off and repeat the cycle. overall for the last few months my weight loss graphs are sinusoidal with a very slow downward trend.
this is why i don't care about day-to-day weights, i do a 7-day running average ignoring the highest and lowest values in the dataset (ie, ignoring the outliers to avoid positively or negatively skewing results). i don't do measurements, but photos suggest a very slight increase in muscle and a slight loss of fat so that complicates things further and makes weight a less than useful measurement of progress.
i think this phenomenon is actually an indication that my maintenance is lower than i think it is hence my deficit is much smaller than i think it is meaning my weight loss is much slower than desired. i think it puts my maintenance at around 1800cals which is pretty low for a 6', 90kg male - i work an office job, but i also spend 8-10hrs a week on the bike and lift 3-4 times a week...
with a tiny deficit it's very easy to wipe it out with 1 or 2 meals on the weekend where i don't have weights or exact content of foods. it's also extremely frustrating because i feel like i'm making progress, then i re-feed and i've undone all my hard work when in fact i'm not and i'm actually doing the right thing. derp.