ahh yes, but pistachio and Deep have both shown they have a track record of enabling vast transformations. If they continue in that vein in 2012, the ability of Deep to add major muscle, trim fat, and come in a super fit chick at 54kgs is almost a dead cert.
In pistachios case, your right he already looks great, but he can add more muscle this year, widen his frame and do a cut post his Test Booster Trial, so the potential for him to look the best of anyone could easily swing the Judge's votes.
I agree the newbs have a foot in the door from Beginner gains, but they have never run the distance before, and that means 8/1 is probably generous with no actual form to speak of.