candyflip
Fatty
January 2012 Betting Guide was:
4/7 Deep
3/1 pistachio, BigMick, candyflip and anyone else on the Test Booster Trial
8/1 Sam Heihei, LMD1234, oldcorollas, KungFooGoo, semillon, unibum, D1cko etc, Drift, Ae86, malceb and assorted low post number peeps.
10/1 Alpha Moth and other pre-pube newbies.
20/1 Sticky, The Hulk, Gunner, MikeW, Steve, Rambodian, ride29er, jchen, The Crow, trofius, BigJim, xwifex
50/1 Sumo
100/1 Fadi, TrentZor, Christian
Form Guide for Mid-year Updates (JUNE 2012) in no particular order:
JSNDRS – after his tragic horse float accident last year, where his previous trainer died, we had high hopes for this big guy in the Autumn. And early races were looking promising. That was, before he discovered the Matilda Bay Cider distillery next to the stable outbuildings. One night was all it took – drunken, out of control, he crashed through the outer fences and was gone. We’ve not seen a horse hair of him since. Fair well old fella – we’re sure wherever you lay your head down, you’re enjoying it. 100/1
Tregs – we rated this country performer as a smokey late last year and that promise is being realised. Has been quietly going about his work on dust bowls that were once BMX tracks. This horse is being trained to the minute and it wouldn’t surprise to find Bart Cummings hand in there somewhere. Just a little more girth reduction and some more mass on the hind quarters, and this gelding could be flying to the finish. Has grown his coat out to fly even further under the radar. Has the market interested now - watch very closely. Solid in betting. 10/1
Relevant – let’s be honest – even the stable didn’t give this youngster much of a chance 6 months ago. Race in the greatest race in the land, against the best WFA out there? To laugh, ha ha. But one thing champions like to do is prove absolutely everybody and their family, dead, frickin’, wrong. So it is with this fella who hasn’t shirked a training session, nor crowed from the rooftops about what he’s capable of. In fact, the hardest work has already been done and from here, it’s all gravy. That should have every runner in this field exceedingly nervous, and the bookies scrambling for the eraser on the odds board. Late mail is though that he's picked up a recurring back injury. Damned luck! For now, keeping him safe as the year is (thankfully) long. 12/1
Steve – the horse with the boring name, and the pedigree of a champion. While other are busy talking about what they’re going to do in this contest, here’s another outstanding runner who has backed up every gain by...gaining more! Started as a broken down crock, left for dead with no parents, in the rain, hopeless, lonely, wasted... and then along came the chance to compete in the Transformation Cup. Has not taken a backwards step since and in fact, is piling more condition on in recent months. Stable is whispering to us that they see him taking the whole damn thing out by late December and though we had him safely pegged for a place in January, are forced to re-evaluate. Firming fast – must not ignore. 6/1
The Crow – big strong gelding who started off the year in a paddock full of lucerne, asleep under a tree, fat as a cow. Has now sprinted into contention with solid work under a demanding trainer and plenty of lead-up runs. Old lazy ways are occasionally sabotaging great progress, but the riders have been told to wield a strong whip on him and keep his mind on the job. Withering finish to the first 6 months is expected to be washed away by a blazing final 6, so would pay to keep very safe. Placegetter at odds, on potential and form so far. Firming. 15/1
Alpha Moth – Novacastrian flyer who has all the potential that any young colt brings to the table, but as we all know, so much can go wrong. And has had his fair share of injuries in this lead-up. However, on balance, this Trainer has it right. Has employed the top dietician in the country and is training at a pace that makes his peers look average. Most of all, he’s adding real condition to his lithe frame and another 6 months of this application could see him take all the honours. If he can keep out of the Vet surgery and on top of the niggles, a colt that will storm home over the final half. Keep well safe. Firming. 8/1
Gunner – what to do with this gelding? Has the potential to take this race, and every other one he bothers to try in the next 5 years, but his work as a stalwart of the Australian Army’s Light Horse Brigade keeps getting in the way. Of course he’s fit, and likely getting stronger by the minute – but will we see him on our racetracks again? All the class, but may be a scratching here before long. Keeping shortish in case he re-appears and steals the whole Carnival back from under our noses. 15/1
Sas – same stable as Gunner, and being pulled the same way. Hard to know what this mare is up to. Market will take the risk though on what we have so far. 50/1
Samheihei – 2YO colt whose all legs and puppy fat. Making some strong headway under a hot new stable and has plenty of competition from there to keep him honest. Still too green in our opinion to win this thing, but he has 6 months to prove us all dead wrong. Watch trackwork. 12/1
Pumpiniron – young banana bender who came out of absolutely nowhere to win the Sun Lovers Cup at last start, and all that on one leg. Missed our initial rating so we’re playing catch-up here and frankly, we’re nervous. This colt has done wonders in a small unknown stable over the first half of the year and just a repeat of that form alone will see him really pushing the leaders for outright favouritism here. The next few months will tell, and all will do well to watch his trackwork, but if the Trainer has his diet right, there’s no reason this one won’t storm home on the outside. An absolute smokey – do not treat lightly. 12/1
canned tuna – has the most unusual gait you have ever seen, mostly because he is so tall at 22 hands, he makes even Lurch run scared. Also has, according to his trainer, a very unusual problem for a colt – he won’t eat his oats. Unheard of for a racer in work. Still, if he can get over all that in the next 6 months, definitely has the genetics to pile on the condition, and start racing at the level we all know he is capable. At his best, would take this in a canter. Has 6 months now to get it all together, and come home over the top of the lot of them. 15/1
RyanF - His promise was brimming over in January, but this year’s hot shot doesn’t look like firing a real bullet this preparation. Bigger, stronger, but a long way still from the leading pack. Needs to partner with one of the top trainers and stable to really see his potential fulfilled in the final half of the year. Good progress – but the competition is making even these impressive gains look average. 15/1
Trofius (because I know he can take this) - a Mass Monster whose last run was in Sweden, when he ran second in the Stockholm Armless Cup. That’s like warming up for the AFL grand final by playing footy in the DAFL (the Danish AFL). On the positive side, this lightly raced gelding has four legs. Back him to run a place if you find some money in the street. (Seriously though, not training for this event and not expecting to win it – but strong as an ox and if his Trainer was interested, would shake the life out of this one). 25/1
hotknife - One of those runners that needs it wet. The problem is that no one knows if it will be wet or not, because Melbourne weather can only be predicted with any accuracy about 30 seconds before it happens. So as to whether he can win the Cup, I’ve not a clue. No-one else does either. Betting is very stable and not expected to surprise. 25/1
Semillon - A bit of a one-paced plodder but hey, that never stopped Kevin Rudd winning a Federal election. Each way, in case he strangles his diet, gives up on the Mass shakes and the jockey finally secures the girth strap. 15/1
ener - Champion Aussie jockey Damien Oliver has run 2nd in two of the last three Transformation Cups and is clearly getting sick of it. So he has elected to vary things up a bit, taking the mount on this hopeless giant who we thing will probably finish 45th, unless we get some trackwork form sent through shortly. 50/1
deep - A great punter once told me to “back the story”. Well, if she wins, what a story. Weighed 240 kilos before the first training session, lost 49 kgs in just 8 days after joining a PTC, and is entering Miss World next year if she takes the grand prize. Running strongly (still) with no let-up, and has even taken a seat on the Racing Board to keep other wayward entries in line! With great power comes an awesome responsibility and though harnessed to carry the top weight in the field, but also the weight of expectations of an entire Nation, this mare has stood proudly and just keeps on putting down the hard work. In a field this big, those odds are as short as any champion is going to get. Nothing she can’t do – wager the house & the kids too. 4/7
xwifex – An interrupted prep with rump soreness, jockey changes and diet variance has meant this mare has not achieved the lofty goals set for her by the Trainer 6 months ago. However, her coat is looking fantastic! Six months is a very long time in racing, and with Winter’s passing, the rush for the Win will no doubt overtake her again and have her sprinting back into training and good solid trackwork. Not out of it by any means. 20/1
Sticky - QLD Horse of the Year had some questions on peaking too early in the lead-up to the big race, but those fears appear to have been unfounded. He’s since gone on to break every record he’d already set, and a few new ones he didn’t even know about. What’s even more entertaining is – he looks like he couldn’t care less. Bookies are shortening him a touch here, but only that much as it seems he isn’t really interested in this race at all. Content to build strength, win every race he stumbles into and almost fall asleep while doing it. Remarkable performer – will give a great sight for your dough, even if you end up blowing the lot. 20/1
unibum – Trainer has saddled up 78 Quadriceps Stakes runners, with 12 winners and 66 non-winners. Chalk this nag up as a certainty to join the losers’ club. On the positive side, the flood of mug money for him will generate better odds for your bet. 25/1
k21 – Some horses blaze across the racing landscape like a supernova and light up all before them.... and some horses lay in the gutter staring at the lights overhead going ‘look, preetttyyyy..’ This nag has been lying on his back for a good long while, mired in mud, and drowning his jockey. Little hope from here. 25/1
Grippy –Leaning out a little now and halfway through a relatively uninterrupted preparation, absolutely no reason to think he can’t be the one storming down the outside come the turn of the new year and solidify a near placing. Will run this trip right out. 15/1
Pistachio – big, strong, keen and incredible bloodlines. But the bright lights of the big city have been calling lately and while juggling movie and TV roles, we’re left wondering: will the fillies and the $$ distract this Champion entire from fulfilling his lofty goals? The Market has become nervous at track reports of skittishness and a tendency to buck root under pressure – he’s down a half point this week as a consequence. All the promise in the world and Trainer still sees him threatening – may require a nose fluffer from here though. 7/2
The Hulk – giant of a gelding with huge genetics but under the stable’s own admissions, is being kept safe to blow his odds out, with the expectation they can back him for a poultice late on and clean up. The market is having none of that and have moved him in 4 points this week on those whispers alone! Track work seems very solid, and extremely consistent, although somewhat one paced. This race is a marathon, not a sprint it’s true, but will need some heavy late work to really bring home the bacon from a base that is already so strong. Keep safe. 16/1
Callan – monster young colt under a firm training hand. Has an arse and legs like Black Caviar, and can probably run as fast too, if he wasn’t weighed down under 100kgs of pudge. Looking to strip a few kgs in the final half of the year, but given the stable’s insistence on Mass, Mass and more MASS, can he make the girl’s and judge’s hearts flutter by New Year? Very consistent trackwork and has big claims. Market has rated him in a full 3 points this week – they don’t like surprises. Watch closely. 7/1
Big Mick – One of the grand old men of the Turf, this guy understands (like your’s truly) that though in the best training facilities north of the border, and with the keenest application to track work and legal supplements, there is only so much a gelded 9Yo can manage. Sydney Cup glory was his, only 4 short years ago, but that’s a lifetime in the equine world and the new breed of Mass Colts are stamping the turf around his hocks with vigour. Pride alone will see him run the trip right to the wire, but it won’t be in the placings this time out. Respect though. 15/1
Player – We rated this Brisbane juvenile as soon as we saw him, and that promise has started to show. 6 months out from the most important race of his career, and the lead-ups have been all positive. Good trackwork, followed by more than decent application to the task has seen this colt win many new fans. Stable needs to broaden his back though – the jockey has nearly slipped off more times than we can count and if it wasn’t for them hanging on for dear life to those massive shoulders and front quarters, he’d have been up for a few manslaughter counts by now. Whispers are again filtering that the next half of the year will be his strongest, and combined with a cut of oat rations, could see him sprint into the top tier of betting. Market taking no chances though – 12/1.
RedDog – Is stronger, fitter and larger than we last saw him and track work has been most beneficial. Has improved on all runs since January, but as we noted back then, this is top company and will take an extraordinary effort to rip through into the upper Tier. Continues to work hard in training and the Trainer is very pleased. Top effort already, but feel he may have too much to do in the time left to him here. 15/1
Kungfoogoo - 6 months ago, he was an anonymous juvenile with potential. Now, the once-laggard is a firming favourite who’s added muscle, width and fat loss to his bulging CV, even though he is eating (wait for it) like a horse!!.... If he wins however, trainer will be made president of the new Australian republic. The competition is so tough, and broad, it’s hard to see him taking out the top favourites unless he doubles the efforts he’s already put in. Certainly not impossible – but will need a very firm hand from the Trainer. However, market is keeping him safe on form from the first half. 10/1.
Boxing23 – no question this bright colt trains hard enough. Massive chance in the dry of his hometown tracks and the 2011 Svelte Cup winner ran a great race last year, and has been sprinting home every race this Autumn. Just one problem: is he so used to arriving fashionably late that he’s forgotten how to be first to the party? The stable is recommending more oats, and (somewhat bizarrely) *less* trackwork, and we can only concur. This boy needs to get some muscle on his hind quarters, and quick because the Mass Monsters are running off into the distance with the rest of the field. 20/1
DKD – one thing is for certain – if you need a laugh in the mounting yard before you saddle up, this guy is your nag. Stalwart of the scene that we haven’t heard much about trackwork from in the last half of the 6 month term, and we’re hoping to see much more of in the next. Could surprise at odds, but we’ll take him on(come at us, Bro), for now. 50/1
Doug67 – On the first Tuesday in November, they also run an annual Transformation Cup in the small NSW town of Muswellbrook. This miserable fella could line up in that race and still miss a place. On the positive side, he’ll make a handy milk carter in his hometown one day. 100/1
Spark – a modern tragedy this story. Bright middleweight horse who had admittedly had it all to do anyway in this company, but in first barrier trial of last spring, sprung a plate which hit regular jockey Seeana Ghost fair in the chops. Took every tooth from his mouth – a rehab stint followed. Next up trial had second import jockey, Nog Oode take the reins, crash into a railing under pressure down the straight and bust his whip hand wide open. No-one since has been game to even attempt a mount. If they ever find another jockey dumb enough to ride him, could be in contention. Until then, comfortable to take him on. 100/1
Islander levu – nothing frustrates your writer more than great potential, wasted. This dashing colt had it all to win with, and has splay footed his way into anonymity since. Partying, focus loss, it’s all there. No trackwork to speak of. No chance. 100/1
LAandE – in an incredible stable from up North, who train the best, and have this one flying under the radar slightly. But still a question on whether they will bother setting him for this with so many other strong contenders in their ranks. Early trackwork was outstanding and could still get up and really run this out – but will he? 33/1
FST_99 – another early front runner who gave plenty of indications of a huge potential, but runs puttered out and trackwork started to fail. Needs a stable switch to really ignite his chances against this lot. Hasn’t won in a long time. 100/1
Sev – by all accounts, the trainer and the stable have shut up shop, sold all the training equipment and harnesses, and let this young colt run off into the forest to fend for himself. Question the motivation behind that decision, but it is their’s to make in the end. Sad to see his tail swish off into the horizon. Rest of field much relieved however. 200/1
Rambodian – big strong old fella who has been beset by hoof injuries this preparation after good promise early in the year. Trainer is suggesting a spell, rehab, followed by a re-ignited Spring campaign. We will wait and see on how he recovers – in the meantime, watch the market. 50/1
Luke – another horse beset by the shoulder curse. First his hooves, then the ball joints. Training on too hard tracks the likely culprit and country trainer may not know what he’s doing here. Either way, a lengthy spell the likely outcome. 100/1
TrentZor – continues to improve on the stellar training and genetics this horse has been gifted with. Recent runs have all been first rate. But the question still remains – what is he doing in a field where he doesn’t qualify to run? If he was actually allowed to compete – would blow this lot away in the bat of a fairly lazy eyelash. Unfortunately, previous drug scandals and cheating allegations continue to plague his trainers and threaten to engulf the whole stable. Best he opts out of this contest with some dignity intact. 100/1
D1cko – huge entire with massive claims. Trains like a champion. Is with the top stable in WA and shows no sign of wilting under the pressure here. Only question is – can he keep off the oats during the final cut and come in leaner, meaner and bigger for the big December race. Only slight query in a very good preparation so far. 10/1
Malceb – as so often happens with the young bucks, one major race is often enough for them. So it is with this fella so far this year – outstanding win in the Lose The Lot Handicap and then has done very little since. Still has massive potential on what he has achieved so far, and if the stable can give the trainer a kick in the pants between now and Xmas, who knows what other riches he may be rewarded with. Meanwhile, the market will take him on. 33/1
Almando – had early rump problems that sidelined the training schedule severely and the trainer had to be very patient with him, but back on track now and putting in very solid runs. Consistency is key for these early trainees and this colt is taking to it like butter on hot toast. Expect big showing by the Spring – watch trackwork closely. 15/1
Christian – more horses strangled by injuries. Again, top stable and no reason to fear he can’t do it from here after rehab, but is this his major focus? We’ll say no to this point, but with a pedigree like this in a stable this strong, wouldn’t be surprised to find him sprint through the field in the last 3 furlongs and take all our money. 100/1
Mideon_696 – now this one is really flying under the radar. First, the Trainer foxed us all by playing funny man and not posting any pictures of his charge. Then he faked some injuries and told he was wasn’t really trying too hard. Now he’s blowing up like the Hindenburg and charging people for rides on him! When this character stops playing, and the stable lets out his true form, we are all in for a shock. Meanwhile, the market is taking no chances and is likely to bring him in even further towards the last 3 month mark. A cut in oats from here, and he could have us paying out big time. Firming fast. 12/1
BigJim – we had him as a bit of an outsider in January, based on a lot of talk, and the jockey fairly declaring the race was already over and brandishing the whip on the line. But that talk has metamorphosed into actual results and this Mass Monster is storming through training, wrecking all in his path and laying waste a lot of pretenders on the way. From here, it’s all about the diet and if he can keep off the cider in the final 3 months, we expect a place at least. As a result, the betting has dropped him a huge 10 points this week and we’re certain any further improvement could see a ton of money come this horses way. Respect. 10/1
MikeW – another it wouldn’t pay to take too lightly. Good early form, but time as a Stallion has it’s inevitable demands and those are seldom complimentary to progress on the racetrack. Discard at your peril however. 33/1
Leeroy – missing in action – no reports. 200/1
Jchen – another Mass Monster who has backed up all the early trash talking by taking two Juvenile Sprint races through the autumn off quality opposition. Right now, he’s beginning to resemble Strawberry Road – all chest and hind quarters, masses of mass, willing other runners to take him on. Trouble is – few will want to lose face by doing so. It matters not because the race that really counts is the Transformation Cup and in that, he is at last against the best in the land. Though they will be hardly trembling in their boots (yet), the fact is, another 6 months preparation like the first 6 will see this entire come into a whole other level. Betting reflects that – he’s in a gigantic 10 points this week and if current form and trackwork continues, plus the dietician has his way with him, expect further shortening. 10/1
Bron – one more filly to add to the injured list. Such early promise but the hoof injuries that have plagued so many have caught her too. Trainer is hopeful she can bounce back in the Spring – spelling now. 50/1
Oliver Lacey – last we heard, the meat pies in country NSW got a lot tastier all of a sudden.... Oliver Lacey has not been spotted since. Expecting a scratching. 500/1
Kingburger – good early form, but being spelled after leg malformations. Will seek out in Spring. 100/1
TRANS AM – no early form to report, no trackwork since. MIA. 200/1
BigRay – Early career overdose on oats & salt licks was never recovered from. Never sighted. 200/1
TLS – foxing - another under the radar. Won’t post photos, won’t release trackwork data, being secreted to perform at premium level. Take no chances. Firming. 15/1
Zan777 – stable went into liquidation last month – selling assets for chalf. Expect scratching. 200/1
Kurt – hasn’t got out of the stable doors. Probably asleep in there. Expect scratching. 200/1
4/7 Deep
3/1 pistachio, BigMick, candyflip and anyone else on the Test Booster Trial
8/1 Sam Heihei, LMD1234, oldcorollas, KungFooGoo, semillon, unibum, D1cko etc, Drift, Ae86, malceb and assorted low post number peeps.
10/1 Alpha Moth and other pre-pube newbies.
20/1 Sticky, The Hulk, Gunner, MikeW, Steve, Rambodian, ride29er, jchen, The Crow, trofius, BigJim, xwifex
50/1 Sumo
100/1 Fadi, TrentZor, Christian
Form Guide for Mid-year Updates (JUNE 2012) in no particular order:
JSNDRS – after his tragic horse float accident last year, where his previous trainer died, we had high hopes for this big guy in the Autumn. And early races were looking promising. That was, before he discovered the Matilda Bay Cider distillery next to the stable outbuildings. One night was all it took – drunken, out of control, he crashed through the outer fences and was gone. We’ve not seen a horse hair of him since. Fair well old fella – we’re sure wherever you lay your head down, you’re enjoying it. 100/1
Tregs – we rated this country performer as a smokey late last year and that promise is being realised. Has been quietly going about his work on dust bowls that were once BMX tracks. This horse is being trained to the minute and it wouldn’t surprise to find Bart Cummings hand in there somewhere. Just a little more girth reduction and some more mass on the hind quarters, and this gelding could be flying to the finish. Has grown his coat out to fly even further under the radar. Has the market interested now - watch very closely. Solid in betting. 10/1
Relevant – let’s be honest – even the stable didn’t give this youngster much of a chance 6 months ago. Race in the greatest race in the land, against the best WFA out there? To laugh, ha ha. But one thing champions like to do is prove absolutely everybody and their family, dead, frickin’, wrong. So it is with this fella who hasn’t shirked a training session, nor crowed from the rooftops about what he’s capable of. In fact, the hardest work has already been done and from here, it’s all gravy. That should have every runner in this field exceedingly nervous, and the bookies scrambling for the eraser on the odds board. Late mail is though that he's picked up a recurring back injury. Damned luck! For now, keeping him safe as the year is (thankfully) long. 12/1
Steve – the horse with the boring name, and the pedigree of a champion. While other are busy talking about what they’re going to do in this contest, here’s another outstanding runner who has backed up every gain by...gaining more! Started as a broken down crock, left for dead with no parents, in the rain, hopeless, lonely, wasted... and then along came the chance to compete in the Transformation Cup. Has not taken a backwards step since and in fact, is piling more condition on in recent months. Stable is whispering to us that they see him taking the whole damn thing out by late December and though we had him safely pegged for a place in January, are forced to re-evaluate. Firming fast – must not ignore. 6/1
The Crow – big strong gelding who started off the year in a paddock full of lucerne, asleep under a tree, fat as a cow. Has now sprinted into contention with solid work under a demanding trainer and plenty of lead-up runs. Old lazy ways are occasionally sabotaging great progress, but the riders have been told to wield a strong whip on him and keep his mind on the job. Withering finish to the first 6 months is expected to be washed away by a blazing final 6, so would pay to keep very safe. Placegetter at odds, on potential and form so far. Firming. 15/1
Alpha Moth – Novacastrian flyer who has all the potential that any young colt brings to the table, but as we all know, so much can go wrong. And has had his fair share of injuries in this lead-up. However, on balance, this Trainer has it right. Has employed the top dietician in the country and is training at a pace that makes his peers look average. Most of all, he’s adding real condition to his lithe frame and another 6 months of this application could see him take all the honours. If he can keep out of the Vet surgery and on top of the niggles, a colt that will storm home over the final half. Keep well safe. Firming. 8/1
Gunner – what to do with this gelding? Has the potential to take this race, and every other one he bothers to try in the next 5 years, but his work as a stalwart of the Australian Army’s Light Horse Brigade keeps getting in the way. Of course he’s fit, and likely getting stronger by the minute – but will we see him on our racetracks again? All the class, but may be a scratching here before long. Keeping shortish in case he re-appears and steals the whole Carnival back from under our noses. 15/1
Sas – same stable as Gunner, and being pulled the same way. Hard to know what this mare is up to. Market will take the risk though on what we have so far. 50/1
Samheihei – 2YO colt whose all legs and puppy fat. Making some strong headway under a hot new stable and has plenty of competition from there to keep him honest. Still too green in our opinion to win this thing, but he has 6 months to prove us all dead wrong. Watch trackwork. 12/1
Pumpiniron – young banana bender who came out of absolutely nowhere to win the Sun Lovers Cup at last start, and all that on one leg. Missed our initial rating so we’re playing catch-up here and frankly, we’re nervous. This colt has done wonders in a small unknown stable over the first half of the year and just a repeat of that form alone will see him really pushing the leaders for outright favouritism here. The next few months will tell, and all will do well to watch his trackwork, but if the Trainer has his diet right, there’s no reason this one won’t storm home on the outside. An absolute smokey – do not treat lightly. 12/1
canned tuna – has the most unusual gait you have ever seen, mostly because he is so tall at 22 hands, he makes even Lurch run scared. Also has, according to his trainer, a very unusual problem for a colt – he won’t eat his oats. Unheard of for a racer in work. Still, if he can get over all that in the next 6 months, definitely has the genetics to pile on the condition, and start racing at the level we all know he is capable. At his best, would take this in a canter. Has 6 months now to get it all together, and come home over the top of the lot of them. 15/1
RyanF - His promise was brimming over in January, but this year’s hot shot doesn’t look like firing a real bullet this preparation. Bigger, stronger, but a long way still from the leading pack. Needs to partner with one of the top trainers and stable to really see his potential fulfilled in the final half of the year. Good progress – but the competition is making even these impressive gains look average. 15/1
Trofius (because I know he can take this) - a Mass Monster whose last run was in Sweden, when he ran second in the Stockholm Armless Cup. That’s like warming up for the AFL grand final by playing footy in the DAFL (the Danish AFL). On the positive side, this lightly raced gelding has four legs. Back him to run a place if you find some money in the street. (Seriously though, not training for this event and not expecting to win it – but strong as an ox and if his Trainer was interested, would shake the life out of this one). 25/1
hotknife - One of those runners that needs it wet. The problem is that no one knows if it will be wet or not, because Melbourne weather can only be predicted with any accuracy about 30 seconds before it happens. So as to whether he can win the Cup, I’ve not a clue. No-one else does either. Betting is very stable and not expected to surprise. 25/1
Semillon - A bit of a one-paced plodder but hey, that never stopped Kevin Rudd winning a Federal election. Each way, in case he strangles his diet, gives up on the Mass shakes and the jockey finally secures the girth strap. 15/1
ener - Champion Aussie jockey Damien Oliver has run 2nd in two of the last three Transformation Cups and is clearly getting sick of it. So he has elected to vary things up a bit, taking the mount on this hopeless giant who we thing will probably finish 45th, unless we get some trackwork form sent through shortly. 50/1
deep - A great punter once told me to “back the story”. Well, if she wins, what a story. Weighed 240 kilos before the first training session, lost 49 kgs in just 8 days after joining a PTC, and is entering Miss World next year if she takes the grand prize. Running strongly (still) with no let-up, and has even taken a seat on the Racing Board to keep other wayward entries in line! With great power comes an awesome responsibility and though harnessed to carry the top weight in the field, but also the weight of expectations of an entire Nation, this mare has stood proudly and just keeps on putting down the hard work. In a field this big, those odds are as short as any champion is going to get. Nothing she can’t do – wager the house & the kids too. 4/7
xwifex – An interrupted prep with rump soreness, jockey changes and diet variance has meant this mare has not achieved the lofty goals set for her by the Trainer 6 months ago. However, her coat is looking fantastic! Six months is a very long time in racing, and with Winter’s passing, the rush for the Win will no doubt overtake her again and have her sprinting back into training and good solid trackwork. Not out of it by any means. 20/1
Sticky - QLD Horse of the Year had some questions on peaking too early in the lead-up to the big race, but those fears appear to have been unfounded. He’s since gone on to break every record he’d already set, and a few new ones he didn’t even know about. What’s even more entertaining is – he looks like he couldn’t care less. Bookies are shortening him a touch here, but only that much as it seems he isn’t really interested in this race at all. Content to build strength, win every race he stumbles into and almost fall asleep while doing it. Remarkable performer – will give a great sight for your dough, even if you end up blowing the lot. 20/1
unibum – Trainer has saddled up 78 Quadriceps Stakes runners, with 12 winners and 66 non-winners. Chalk this nag up as a certainty to join the losers’ club. On the positive side, the flood of mug money for him will generate better odds for your bet. 25/1
k21 – Some horses blaze across the racing landscape like a supernova and light up all before them.... and some horses lay in the gutter staring at the lights overhead going ‘look, preetttyyyy..’ This nag has been lying on his back for a good long while, mired in mud, and drowning his jockey. Little hope from here. 25/1
Grippy –Leaning out a little now and halfway through a relatively uninterrupted preparation, absolutely no reason to think he can’t be the one storming down the outside come the turn of the new year and solidify a near placing. Will run this trip right out. 15/1
Pistachio – big, strong, keen and incredible bloodlines. But the bright lights of the big city have been calling lately and while juggling movie and TV roles, we’re left wondering: will the fillies and the $$ distract this Champion entire from fulfilling his lofty goals? The Market has become nervous at track reports of skittishness and a tendency to buck root under pressure – he’s down a half point this week as a consequence. All the promise in the world and Trainer still sees him threatening – may require a nose fluffer from here though. 7/2
The Hulk – giant of a gelding with huge genetics but under the stable’s own admissions, is being kept safe to blow his odds out, with the expectation they can back him for a poultice late on and clean up. The market is having none of that and have moved him in 4 points this week on those whispers alone! Track work seems very solid, and extremely consistent, although somewhat one paced. This race is a marathon, not a sprint it’s true, but will need some heavy late work to really bring home the bacon from a base that is already so strong. Keep safe. 16/1
Callan – monster young colt under a firm training hand. Has an arse and legs like Black Caviar, and can probably run as fast too, if he wasn’t weighed down under 100kgs of pudge. Looking to strip a few kgs in the final half of the year, but given the stable’s insistence on Mass, Mass and more MASS, can he make the girl’s and judge’s hearts flutter by New Year? Very consistent trackwork and has big claims. Market has rated him in a full 3 points this week – they don’t like surprises. Watch closely. 7/1
Big Mick – One of the grand old men of the Turf, this guy understands (like your’s truly) that though in the best training facilities north of the border, and with the keenest application to track work and legal supplements, there is only so much a gelded 9Yo can manage. Sydney Cup glory was his, only 4 short years ago, but that’s a lifetime in the equine world and the new breed of Mass Colts are stamping the turf around his hocks with vigour. Pride alone will see him run the trip right to the wire, but it won’t be in the placings this time out. Respect though. 15/1
Player – We rated this Brisbane juvenile as soon as we saw him, and that promise has started to show. 6 months out from the most important race of his career, and the lead-ups have been all positive. Good trackwork, followed by more than decent application to the task has seen this colt win many new fans. Stable needs to broaden his back though – the jockey has nearly slipped off more times than we can count and if it wasn’t for them hanging on for dear life to those massive shoulders and front quarters, he’d have been up for a few manslaughter counts by now. Whispers are again filtering that the next half of the year will be his strongest, and combined with a cut of oat rations, could see him sprint into the top tier of betting. Market taking no chances though – 12/1.
RedDog – Is stronger, fitter and larger than we last saw him and track work has been most beneficial. Has improved on all runs since January, but as we noted back then, this is top company and will take an extraordinary effort to rip through into the upper Tier. Continues to work hard in training and the Trainer is very pleased. Top effort already, but feel he may have too much to do in the time left to him here. 15/1
Kungfoogoo - 6 months ago, he was an anonymous juvenile with potential. Now, the once-laggard is a firming favourite who’s added muscle, width and fat loss to his bulging CV, even though he is eating (wait for it) like a horse!!.... If he wins however, trainer will be made president of the new Australian republic. The competition is so tough, and broad, it’s hard to see him taking out the top favourites unless he doubles the efforts he’s already put in. Certainly not impossible – but will need a very firm hand from the Trainer. However, market is keeping him safe on form from the first half. 10/1.
Boxing23 – no question this bright colt trains hard enough. Massive chance in the dry of his hometown tracks and the 2011 Svelte Cup winner ran a great race last year, and has been sprinting home every race this Autumn. Just one problem: is he so used to arriving fashionably late that he’s forgotten how to be first to the party? The stable is recommending more oats, and (somewhat bizarrely) *less* trackwork, and we can only concur. This boy needs to get some muscle on his hind quarters, and quick because the Mass Monsters are running off into the distance with the rest of the field. 20/1
DKD – one thing is for certain – if you need a laugh in the mounting yard before you saddle up, this guy is your nag. Stalwart of the scene that we haven’t heard much about trackwork from in the last half of the 6 month term, and we’re hoping to see much more of in the next. Could surprise at odds, but we’ll take him on(come at us, Bro), for now. 50/1
Doug67 – On the first Tuesday in November, they also run an annual Transformation Cup in the small NSW town of Muswellbrook. This miserable fella could line up in that race and still miss a place. On the positive side, he’ll make a handy milk carter in his hometown one day. 100/1
Spark – a modern tragedy this story. Bright middleweight horse who had admittedly had it all to do anyway in this company, but in first barrier trial of last spring, sprung a plate which hit regular jockey Seeana Ghost fair in the chops. Took every tooth from his mouth – a rehab stint followed. Next up trial had second import jockey, Nog Oode take the reins, crash into a railing under pressure down the straight and bust his whip hand wide open. No-one since has been game to even attempt a mount. If they ever find another jockey dumb enough to ride him, could be in contention. Until then, comfortable to take him on. 100/1
Islander levu – nothing frustrates your writer more than great potential, wasted. This dashing colt had it all to win with, and has splay footed his way into anonymity since. Partying, focus loss, it’s all there. No trackwork to speak of. No chance. 100/1
LAandE – in an incredible stable from up North, who train the best, and have this one flying under the radar slightly. But still a question on whether they will bother setting him for this with so many other strong contenders in their ranks. Early trackwork was outstanding and could still get up and really run this out – but will he? 33/1
FST_99 – another early front runner who gave plenty of indications of a huge potential, but runs puttered out and trackwork started to fail. Needs a stable switch to really ignite his chances against this lot. Hasn’t won in a long time. 100/1
Sev – by all accounts, the trainer and the stable have shut up shop, sold all the training equipment and harnesses, and let this young colt run off into the forest to fend for himself. Question the motivation behind that decision, but it is their’s to make in the end. Sad to see his tail swish off into the horizon. Rest of field much relieved however. 200/1
Rambodian – big strong old fella who has been beset by hoof injuries this preparation after good promise early in the year. Trainer is suggesting a spell, rehab, followed by a re-ignited Spring campaign. We will wait and see on how he recovers – in the meantime, watch the market. 50/1
Luke – another horse beset by the shoulder curse. First his hooves, then the ball joints. Training on too hard tracks the likely culprit and country trainer may not know what he’s doing here. Either way, a lengthy spell the likely outcome. 100/1
TrentZor – continues to improve on the stellar training and genetics this horse has been gifted with. Recent runs have all been first rate. But the question still remains – what is he doing in a field where he doesn’t qualify to run? If he was actually allowed to compete – would blow this lot away in the bat of a fairly lazy eyelash. Unfortunately, previous drug scandals and cheating allegations continue to plague his trainers and threaten to engulf the whole stable. Best he opts out of this contest with some dignity intact. 100/1
D1cko – huge entire with massive claims. Trains like a champion. Is with the top stable in WA and shows no sign of wilting under the pressure here. Only question is – can he keep off the oats during the final cut and come in leaner, meaner and bigger for the big December race. Only slight query in a very good preparation so far. 10/1
Malceb – as so often happens with the young bucks, one major race is often enough for them. So it is with this fella so far this year – outstanding win in the Lose The Lot Handicap and then has done very little since. Still has massive potential on what he has achieved so far, and if the stable can give the trainer a kick in the pants between now and Xmas, who knows what other riches he may be rewarded with. Meanwhile, the market will take him on. 33/1
Almando – had early rump problems that sidelined the training schedule severely and the trainer had to be very patient with him, but back on track now and putting in very solid runs. Consistency is key for these early trainees and this colt is taking to it like butter on hot toast. Expect big showing by the Spring – watch trackwork closely. 15/1
Christian – more horses strangled by injuries. Again, top stable and no reason to fear he can’t do it from here after rehab, but is this his major focus? We’ll say no to this point, but with a pedigree like this in a stable this strong, wouldn’t be surprised to find him sprint through the field in the last 3 furlongs and take all our money. 100/1
Mideon_696 – now this one is really flying under the radar. First, the Trainer foxed us all by playing funny man and not posting any pictures of his charge. Then he faked some injuries and told he was wasn’t really trying too hard. Now he’s blowing up like the Hindenburg and charging people for rides on him! When this character stops playing, and the stable lets out his true form, we are all in for a shock. Meanwhile, the market is taking no chances and is likely to bring him in even further towards the last 3 month mark. A cut in oats from here, and he could have us paying out big time. Firming fast. 12/1
BigJim – we had him as a bit of an outsider in January, based on a lot of talk, and the jockey fairly declaring the race was already over and brandishing the whip on the line. But that talk has metamorphosed into actual results and this Mass Monster is storming through training, wrecking all in his path and laying waste a lot of pretenders on the way. From here, it’s all about the diet and if he can keep off the cider in the final 3 months, we expect a place at least. As a result, the betting has dropped him a huge 10 points this week and we’re certain any further improvement could see a ton of money come this horses way. Respect. 10/1
MikeW – another it wouldn’t pay to take too lightly. Good early form, but time as a Stallion has it’s inevitable demands and those are seldom complimentary to progress on the racetrack. Discard at your peril however. 33/1
Leeroy – missing in action – no reports. 200/1
Jchen – another Mass Monster who has backed up all the early trash talking by taking two Juvenile Sprint races through the autumn off quality opposition. Right now, he’s beginning to resemble Strawberry Road – all chest and hind quarters, masses of mass, willing other runners to take him on. Trouble is – few will want to lose face by doing so. It matters not because the race that really counts is the Transformation Cup and in that, he is at last against the best in the land. Though they will be hardly trembling in their boots (yet), the fact is, another 6 months preparation like the first 6 will see this entire come into a whole other level. Betting reflects that – he’s in a gigantic 10 points this week and if current form and trackwork continues, plus the dietician has his way with him, expect further shortening. 10/1
Bron – one more filly to add to the injured list. Such early promise but the hoof injuries that have plagued so many have caught her too. Trainer is hopeful she can bounce back in the Spring – spelling now. 50/1
Oliver Lacey – last we heard, the meat pies in country NSW got a lot tastier all of a sudden.... Oliver Lacey has not been spotted since. Expecting a scratching. 500/1
Kingburger – good early form, but being spelled after leg malformations. Will seek out in Spring. 100/1
TRANS AM – no early form to report, no trackwork since. MIA. 200/1
BigRay – Early career overdose on oats & salt licks was never recovered from. Never sighted. 200/1
TLS – foxing - another under the radar. Won’t post photos, won’t release trackwork data, being secreted to perform at premium level. Take no chances. Firming. 15/1
Zan777 – stable went into liquidation last month – selling assets for chalf. Expect scratching. 200/1
Kurt – hasn’t got out of the stable doors. Probably asleep in there. Expect scratching. 200/1
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